摩根大通近期发布了一篇关于美股宏观经济、指数点位和大类资产趋势的研究报告。该报告指出，对于2023Q1的观点处于中性和看涨之间，市场将继续由FICC（编者注：固定收益产品、外汇和大宗商品及衍生品）驱动。 标普500指数虽然出现反弹，但在回到4000点之后，可能再次出现卖压 ，所以价值、防御性和质量仍是下一步的交易原则。

而摩根大通做出这一判断的原因在于，预期通货膨胀提升或维持不变——中国防疫政策边际调整之后，对大宗商品需求再次上涨，需求提升推高价格。（编者注：中国12月财新服务业PMI 48，预期 46.8，前值 46.7。中国12月财新综合PMI 48.3，前值 47）

【资料图】

对于具体的资产类型， 摩根大通建议关注医药、能源板块，以及黄金；看空科技板块 。

要点整理：

◆看多理由：加息放缓抑制美元汇率、美债利率，进而市场流动性修复

◆看空理由：中国需求复苏推高商品价格，支撑通胀数据

◆关键指标：美元指数、ISM、标普500的EPS估值情况、市场资金流向

◆美股研判：关注医药、能源板块，黄金；看空科技板块

下面是翻译注释及原文：

图注：摩根大通基于特定条件，将后市分为看涨、基准、看跌3档走势的情况假设

一、看涨假设

包括上述变量，但主要取决于美联储加息脚步放缓，表现为美元走弱，债券收益率高位试探难以为继。此外，随着通胀消退，劳动力市场的强劲表现或有助于提振经济。

二、看跌假设

除了上述变量外，关键是通货膨胀率，要么走高，要么维持在这些水平。最有可能出现的情况是，中国的重新开放比预期的更强劲，这会推高大宗商品价格，尤其是在能源领域，从而在不放松劳动力市场的情况下削减支出。

三、DA&A量化分析观点

基于【噪声和策略仓位监测工具】发出的信号，目前市场的趋势偏向中立。要变得更加乐观，需要出现这些量化信号：

1）基本面改善，如美元走弱，ISM指数强劲，或积极的利润修正；

2）头寸之间的博弈形势。

四、美国市场研判

总体而言，预期介于基本情况和看涨情况之间。

2023Q1可能仍然具有挑战性，因为美联储很活跃，但紧缩周期已接近尾声，宏观数据发出的信号喜忧参半。通胀正在消退，但劳动力市场的正常化，从而避免美联储加息调控，似乎不太可能在2023年实现。从另一个角度来看，新冠疫情对劳动力供应造成了结构性阻力，这在未来12个月不太可能改变。

也就是说，2023Q1似乎会继续由FICC驱动市场。鉴于美元和债券收益率有可能走高，实际收益率进一步走高，收益率曲线进一步趋平，我们保持谨慎看法。

如果可能的话，采取市场中性的方法，并将卖出将标准普尔指数带至4000点水位线的任何反弹。价值、防御性和质量因素的组合将主导我们的多头。

从行业角度来看，可以考虑做多能源和医疗保健股。

能源方面，WTI近期处于75-90美元区间的底部附近，我们倾向于持有能源股；然而，能源ETF和WTI之间的价差在2022Q4扩大（编者注：参考下图），在能源在走高之前，这个价差可能会出现一些压缩。

对于空头而言，科技股可能仍将面临挑战，尤其是无利可图的科技股和半科技股可能继续疲弱，因为它们从稀缺转向过剩。

房地产/房地产投资信托基金是另一个中期路径较低的领域。

五、关于黄金

另外，人们对央行储备和支付系统有足够的担忧，因此在今年伊始，黄金成为许多人最青睐的投资之一。黄金倾向于与实际收益率反向移动，虽然这种关系在2022Q4出现了背离（编者注：参考下图），但可能会出现均值回归。Natasha Kaneva和她的团队预计今年黄金均价为1785美元，较上周五收盘下跌2%。

六、研报原文

◆ BULL CASE : includes the above elements but is largely predicated on a less aggressive Fed that manifests in a weaker USD and bond yields that fail to retest highs. Further, the strength of labor markets as inflation dissipates should help bolster growth.

◆ BEAR CASE : in addition to the above variables, the key here is inflation that either moves higher or stays constant around these levels. The most likely scenario is a stronger than expected Chinese reopening which increases commodity prices, especially in the Energy complex, that cuts spending without loosening the labor market.

◆ DA&A QUANT VIEW : is currently Neutral based on our Signal from the Noise and Tactical Positioning monitors. To get more bullish, those quant signals would need to see either (i) improved fundamentals such as a weaker USD, strong ISM, or positive earnings revisions Or (i) an improvement in the positioning backdrop.

◆ US MKT INTEL VIEW : sits between the base case and the bull case. Q1 is likely to remain challenging with the Fed active, but nearing the end of the tightening cycle, with macro data given mixed signals. Inflation is dissipating but if we need labor markets to normalize to push the Fed firmly on the sidelines, that seems unlikely to come to fruition in 2023. Thought differently, COVID created a structural headwind to labor supply which is unlikely to change over the next 12 months. That said, Q1 seems to be another quarter where Equities are driven by FICC markets. Given the potential for USD and bond yields to move higher, a further move higher in real yields, and a further flattening of the yield curve we maintain our cautious View. If possible, a market-neutral approach and would sell any rally that takes the SPx to / through the 4k level. A combination of Value, Defensive, and Quality factors is what would dominate our longs. From a sector perspective, consider longs in Energy and Healthcare. Regarding Energy, with WTI trading near the bottom of its $75-$90 near-term range, we like owning Energy Equities ; though, the spread between Energy ETFs and WTI broaden over 22Q4 which could see some compression before the group moves higher. For shorts, Tech is likely to remain challenged especially unprofitable Tech and Semis may continue their weakness as scarcity transforms to surplus. Real Estate / REITs are another area where the medium-term path is lower.

◆Separately, there is enough concern over central bank reserves and payment systems that gold is among many people" s favorite investments as we launch the year. Gold tends to move inversely to real yields, but that relationship has diverged in 22Q4, so we may see some mean-reversion. Natasha Kaneva and team see gold averaging $1785 this year, -2% from Friday" s close.